# So you’re going to be a Penalty Box Timer?

A couple of weeks ago I worked as a penalty box timer for the Fab Slav roller derby sevens tournament. If you don’t know what roller derby is, this post is not for you. Instead, you should find out!

This post is about what I learned of penalty box timing after doing it for the first time. It’s not a substitute for reading the WFTDA docs, being familiar with the sheets you’ll fill in, watching Brain of Terror’s videos, or taking any training that is offered to you.

# Riddler Classic, January 24 2020

EDIT: Nope! Not far wrong, but definitely wrong.

My strategy of starting with the easy cases and building out to more complex cases was used successfully by other solvers. My analysis of the easy cases was correct, but there was a mistake in the way I built out. My diagram probably didn’t help; the one drawn by the winner didn’t distinguish between the larger and smaller piles, and I think that’s where my error crept in.

For example, when I considered (9, 5), I thought it was a losing position because I didn’t see that taking six coins from the larger pile produced (5, 3), since the larger pile became the smaller pile in that move. So the “simplification” I introduced, of specifying one pile as larger, while not wrong, made it easier for me to make a mistake. It helped to break my mental model by suggesting an identity for the piles (“larger” or “smaller”) that isn’t persistent, but depends on the progress of the game. Will try not to do that again!

EDIT 2: Revised the original spread sheet showing the rows that I had calculated wrongly, and producing a correct game state table.

Another week of being fairly confident about this week’s Riddler Classic. (Bolstered by getting exactly the right answer for the last one I did, if by a slightly inefficient method.)

The puzzle is a coin-picking game, with the usual aim of taking the last coins, but the unusual condition of having two coin stacks:

# Moving the Electoral Needle

Labour took one hell of a beating, and they’re electing a new leader. Those in favour of continuity sometimes produce figures aiming to show that continuity is fine, and can bring victory.

So here are four graphs of things that might matter, versus the number of seats won. One of these is not like the other three.

# Understanding Cash-Settled Futures

## What is This?

This spread sheet is my own attempt to show how the collateral flow to or from a clearing house works. I created it about five years ago when I was working at a bank, and needed to explain the relationships between different quantities, and how they are calculated.

If you have a rough idea of how futures work, and want to see a detailed example, this post might help. If you don’t know what futures are, this won’t help, but Wikipedia’s intro might.

# Choosing to do a Project: Three Gates

I’ve had this mental model for a while, but it solidified a year ago after explaining it at work, and I wanted to use it again in a Twitter debate shortly afterwards. Twitter’s the wrong place for real explanations though, so here it is.

This model will not solve your disagreements for you, and it’s not a substitute for calculating the NPV of your possible projects. Instead, it’s a quick shorthand that might make discussions more useful, and show you something about your team.

# Could the Tories Still Lose?

Last night, the betting markets were giving the Tories a better than 75% chance of winning a majority in Thursday’s general election. Polls still have them far ahead, and personally, I expect that they’ll do it.

If we are wrong about that, and they don’t form a majority, why might that be? If a hung parliament is coming, what would make people blind to it?

# Riddler Classic, November 22 2019

Most of the Classics look too difficult for me to be able to solve, but this week’s looked like I could approach it. No code required, either.

Here’s the question:

Five friends … are playing the … Lottery, in which each must choose exactly five numbers from 1 to 70. After they all picked their numbers, the first friend notices that no number was selected by two or more friends. Unimpressed, the second friend observes that all 25 selected numbers are composite (i.e., not prime). Not to be outdone, the third friend points out that each selected number has at least two distinct prime factors. After some more thinking, the fourth friend excitedly remarks that the product of selected numbers on each ticket is exactly the same. …

What is the product of the selected numbers on each ticket?

There might be a neat, elegant way of solving this, but I chipped away at it bit by bit.